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Data for Afghanistan

Afghanistan rural marketplace opportunity

Bringing the market closer to rural producers

Ahmad Zia Wahdat, PhD | October 2026

The Afghanistan Rural Marketplace Opportunity (ARMO) aims to identify new marketplace sites that would cut the time of rural producers and household businesses in reaching buyers, hence increasing trade and jobs in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's “existing markets” are concentrated in provincial centers and major cities, including the 40 markets monitored by the World Food Programme (WFP). In order to identify new marketplace sites in rural Afghanistan, the ARMO analysis calculates road travel time from every inhabited square kilometer to the nearest existing market, finds the rural clusters that are more than an hour away, and selects district centers and towns that would bring the most producers within reach.

Candidate marketplace sites are a shortlist for field validation and potential public investment decisions. Marketplace site security, land, community consent, and trader demand must be evaluated before final commitment. For every number and calculation in the ARMO report, evidence status is provided.

96
candidate marketplace sites across 34 provinces
6.6 m
underserved rural people brought within 60 minutes (54% of the gap)
898,000
producer households realistically addressable (1.9 m within 60 min)
US$ 104 m to 312 m
annual turnover, low to high (Base US$ 208 m)
6,546
direct jobs in the base case, plus about 10,474 indirect

Nearly half of rural Afghans live more than an hour by road from an existing market. A network of 96 well-placed rural marketplaces would bring 6.6 million of them within an hour and could carry about US$ 208 m of trade a year in the base case.

Explore the candidate sites

Explore the candidate sites BadakhshanBadghisBaghlanBalkhBamyanDaykundiFarahFaryabGhazniGhorHelmandHeratJawzjanKabulKandaharKapisaKhostKunarKunduzLaghmanLogarNangarharNimrozNuristanPaktikaPaktyaPanjshirParwanSamanganSar-e PulTakharUruzganWardakZabul
Candidate site 60-minute road catchment Provincial center Tap a pin to see the site. Tap a province to open its profile.

Key findings

  1. 1

    Half the countryside is more than an hour from a market. 12.3 million of 25.4 million rural residents (48%) live more than 60 minutes by road from a provincial center, a major city or one of the 40 markets WFP monitors. For a farmer with a donkey-load of produce or two sheep to sell, that hour, often far longer in winter, decides whether a sale is worth making.

  2. 2

    A modest network closes more than half that gap. The 96 sites in this report would bring 6.6 million underserved rural people (54%) within 60 minutes of a marketplace. Most are existing district centers or market towns (43 district centers and 53 market towns), so they build on roads, settlements and trade habits that already exist. The median site is 39 km and 91 minutes by road from the nearest existing market.

  3. 3

    Value concentrates where irrigated farming meets poor access. Nangarhar, Ghazni, Helmand, Herat, Kunduz, Takhar lead on base-case turnover, each above US$ 11.1 m a year across their sites. They combine large rural populations, irrigated horticulture or rice, and districts that sit beyond the reach of today's provincial markets.

  4. 4

    Two kinds of marketplace are needed. 60 sites are producer marketplaces: most of their catchment is currently underserved, and the priority is a safe, regular place to sell. 36 are aggregation hubs in peri-urban belts such as Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Logar, Laghman and Nangarhar, where people already reach a market. There the gap is organized wholesale, grading and storage rather than distance.

  5. 5

    Remote highlands need a lighter model. In Nuristan, Nimroz, Farah, Ghor, Bamyan, Daykundi, sites carry US$ 198 k to US$ 2.4 m a year each. Weekly or seasonal markets, mobile livestock auctions and pre-winter collection points will serve these provinces better than permanent buildings.

  6. 6

    Storage, not buildings, is the binding constraint. Cold storage is justified for perishables in 17 provinces, among them Nangarhar, Kandahar, Herat, Kunduz and the Kabul-region horticulture belt. Dry storage, drying yards and certified scales are needed everywhere. With only about 40% of Afghans on the grid (DABS, 2025) and about 300 sunny days a year, solar-battery systems are the default power solution.

  7. 7

    Jobs reach beyond the market gate. The base case supports about 6,546 direct jobs (traders, porters, weighers, cleaners, guards, managers) and about 10,474 indirect jobs in transport, aggregation, processing and packaging. Women's household enterprises in carpets, embroidery, dairy and dried fruit need dedicated stalls or women-run trading days to share in this.

  8. 8

    The numbers are a disciplined baseline, not a forecast. Turnover rests on four drivers: addressable producer households, participation (10%, 20% or 30%), sales per participating household (US$ 600 to 1,150 by farming system) and household purchases at the market. Each is documented in the assumptions section and can be updated as field evidence arrives.

What should happen next

  1. Validate on the ground. A two-to-three week field check per province of land, security, trader interest, existing periodic markets and community support, starting with the top site in each province.
  2. Design with traders and women. Fees, opening days and stall allocation set with local traders' and women's producer groups; storage and scales run as shared services.
  3. Update the baseline. Replace planning parameters with field data on prices, volumes and participation and re-run the model, which takes minutes.

Province profiles

Two to three candidate sites per province, with maps, catchments, products, infrastructure needs, turnover and jobs.

Downloads

Method, assumptions and sources →